題 目：PrEP Intervention in the Mitigation of HIV/AIDS Epidemicsin China via a Data-Validated Age-Structured Model
主講人：吳鵬博士
時(shí) 間：2023年12月19日（周二）14：30-15：30
地 點(diǎn)：6號(hào)學(xué)院樓402會(huì)議室
主辦單位：新葡萄8883官網(wǎng)AMG、浙江省2011“數(shù)據(jù)科學(xué)與大數(shù)據(jù)分析協(xié)同創(chuàng)新中心”
摘 要：
Antiretroviral-based pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) treatment offers a new opportunity for protecting humans against HIV and disrupting current HIV prevention systems. However, implementing this preventive measure has been diffificult due to its high cost. In this paper, we propose an age-structured model that incorporates infection ages, HAART (highly active antiretroviral therapy), and PrEP intervention. We investigate the qualitative behavior of the model and fifind a threshold parameter (the basic reproduction number) that determines the asymptotic stability of equilibria. We validate the model and estimate theparameters by confronting the actual HIV/AIDS data from 2004 to 2018 in China using MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) method. Furthermore, we investigate the PrEP intervention strategy by usingincremental cost-effectiveness and average cost-effectiveness. Our work suggests that PrEP intervention based on the infection characteristics of different age groups can be an effective strategy to eradicate HIV/AIDS epidemics in China.
主講人簡(jiǎn)介：
吳鵬，應(yīng)用數(shù)學(xué)博士，研究方向是動(dòng)力系統(tǒng)理論研究及其應(yīng)用，主要研究?jī)?nèi)容是HIV/AIDS傳染病動(dòng)力學(xué)建模與研究（ODE,PDE建模、數(shù)值分析、最優(yōu)控制問題）。以第一作者在Journal of FranklinInstitute、Applied Mathematical Modelling、Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications、Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems Series B、高校應(yīng)用數(shù)學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)、系統(tǒng)科學(xué)與數(shù)學(xué)等應(yīng)用數(shù)學(xué)和生物數(shù)學(xué)方面知名SCI及國(guó)內(nèi)權(quán)威學(xué)術(shù)期刊發(fā)表論文20余篇。
歡迎各位老師和同學(xué)積極參加！
